Consumer Preference Uncertainty:

This paper investigates consumer preference uncertainty in multiattribute judgment. We investigate preference uncertainty as a function of stimulus characteristics such as attribute conflict (discrepancy among the attributes of an alternative) and attribute extremity (very high or low attribute values). Following the behavioral results reported by Fischer, Luce and Jia (2000) and the simulation results by Fischer, Jia, and Luce (2000), we develop an analytic framework for preference uncertainty in multiattribute judgment. Based on a random additive multiattribute utility model using Dirichlet weights and a one-parameter family of random power attribute utility, we derive formal measures of attribute conflict and attribute extremity and study their effects on preference uncertainty in consumer judgment. We test our models empirically by using the consumer purchase contexts of laptop computers, cars, and vacation tours. The results of our experiments provide support for our measures and models regarding preference uncertainty, and show that greater conflict among attributes leads to larger response error, wider confidence intervals and longer judgment times. Greater attribute extremity results in less response error, smaller confidence intervals and shorter judgment times. (Consumer Choice and Judgment; Preference Uncertainty; Attribute Conflict; Confidence Interval; Decision Difficulty)